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Tennessee vs Dalton Red Wolves — USL League Two 2018

Tennessee
Tennessee
FT
3 – 1
Dalton Red Wolves
Dalton Red Wolves
7/14/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 71Ravenwood High School soccer filed

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Tennessee46%
×Draw23%
Dalton Red Wolves31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tennessee
1.80
Dalton Red Wolves
1.45

Tennessee creates 24% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 24 away

creates per match

Tennessee
1.72
Dalton Red Wolves
1.29

allows per match

Tennessee
1.60
Dalton Red Wolves
1.88

finishing

Tennessee+0.00on par
Dalton Red Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tennessee ↓

Dalton Red Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Tennessee or draw
69%
Tennessee or Dalton Red Wolves
77%
Draw or Dalton Red Wolves
54%

Winning margin

Tennessee wins by 2+
25%
Dalton Red Wolves wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tennessee 1+ goals
83%
Tennessee 2+ goals
54%
Tennessee 3+ goals
27%
Dalton Red Wolves 1+ goals
77%
Dalton Red Wolves 2+ goals
42%
Dalton Red Wolves 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Tennessee (draw refunded)
60%
Dalton Red Wolves (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tennessee at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.60 · 25 matches

Dalton Red Wolves away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tennessee attack 1.72 + Dalton Red Wolves defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.80

Dalton Red Wolves attack 1.29 + Tennessee defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tennessee scores more
46%
level
23%
Dalton Red Wolves scores more
31%

Tennessee at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tennessee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Tennessee 3–1 Dalton Red Wolves

Tennessee beat Dalton Red Wolves 3-1 in USL League Two on July 14, 2022.

The match was played at Ravenwood High School soccer filed in Brentwood, Tennessee.