Dalton Red Wolves 0–1 Tennessee: Result & Stats

Dalton Red Wolves

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tennessee

6/4/2023

USL League Two · Southern Conference - 7Dalton Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Dalton Red Wolves36%

×Draw26%

Tennessee38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dalton Red WolvesExpected goals in this matchTennessee

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.37

Dalton Red Wolves

1.31

Tennessee

1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 25 away

1.46

creates per match

1.28

1.46

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Dalton Red Wolves

1.46

Tennessee

1.28

allows per match

Dalton Red Wolves

1.46

Tennessee

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dalton Red Wolves+0.00on par

Tennessee+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalton Red Wolves ↓

Tennessee →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Dalton Red Wolves or draw

62%

Dalton Red Wolves or Tennessee

74%

Draw or Tennessee

64%

Winning margin

Dalton Red Wolves wins by 2+

16%

Tennessee wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Dalton Red Wolves 1+ goals

73%

Dalton Red Wolves 2+ goals

38%

Dalton Red Wolves 3+ goals

14%

Tennessee 1+ goals

75%

Tennessee 2+ goals

40%

Tennessee 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Dalton Red Wolves (draw refunded)

48%

Tennessee (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalton Red Wolves at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 24 matches

Tennessee away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalton Red Wolves attack 1.46 + Tennessee defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.31

Tennessee attack 1.28 + Dalton Red Wolves defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dalton Red Wolves scores more

36%

level

26%

Tennessee scores more

38%

Tennessee at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tennessee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff