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Tennessee vs Asheville City — USL League Two 2026

Tennessee
Tennessee
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Asheville City
Asheville City
7/2/2025USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 18Nolensville Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Tennessee22%
×Draw20%
Asheville City58%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tennessee
1.33
Asheville City
2.24

Asheville City creates 68% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 16 away

creates per match

Tennessee
1.92
Asheville City
2.56

allows per match

Tennessee
1.92
Asheville City
0.75

finishing

Tennessee+0.00on par
Asheville City+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tennessee ↓

Asheville City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Tennessee or draw
42%
Tennessee or Asheville City
80%
Draw or Asheville City
78%

Winning margin

Tennessee wins by 2+
9%
Asheville City wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Tennessee 1+ goals
74%
Tennessee 2+ goals
38%
Tennessee 3+ goals
15%
Asheville City 1+ goals
89%
Asheville City 2+ goals
65%
Asheville City 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Tennessee (draw refunded)
28%
Asheville City (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tennessee at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

Asheville City away — creates 2.56, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tennessee attack 1.92 + Asheville City defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.33

Asheville City attack 2.56 + Tennessee defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Tennessee scores more
22%
level
20%
Asheville City scores more
58%

Asheville City at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Asheville City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Tennessee 2–4 Asheville City

Asheville City beat Tennessee 4-2 in USL League Two on July 2, 2025.

The match was played at Nolensville Stadium in Nolensville, Tennessee.