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Asheville City vs Tennessee — USL League Two 2026

Asheville City
Asheville City
FT
2 – 1
Tennessee
Tennessee
7/13/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 18Greenwood Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Asheville City63%
×Draw22%
Tennessee15%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asheville City
1.85
Tennessee
0.78

Asheville City creates 137% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

creates per match

Asheville City
2.47
Tennessee
1.15

allows per match

Asheville City
0.42
Tennessee
1.23

finishing

Asheville City+0.00on par
Tennessee+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asheville City ↓

Tennessee →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Asheville City or draw
85%
Asheville City or Tennessee
78%
Draw or Tennessee
37%

Winning margin

Asheville City wins by 2+
37%
Tennessee wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Asheville City 1+ goals
84%
Asheville City 2+ goals
55%
Asheville City 3+ goals
28%
Tennessee 1+ goals
54%
Tennessee 2+ goals
18%
Tennessee 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Asheville City (draw refunded)
80%
Tennessee (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asheville City at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.42 · 19 matches

Tennessee away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asheville City attack 2.47 + Tennessee defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.85

Tennessee attack 1.15 + Asheville City defence 0.42 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Asheville City scores more
63%
level
22%
Tennessee scores more
15%

Asheville City at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Asheville City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Asheville City vs Tennessee

Asheville City beat Tennessee 2-1 in USL League Two on July 13, 2024.

The match was played at Greenwood Field in Asheville, North Carolina.