Tenisca 2–1 Telde: Result & Stats

Tenisca

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Telde

12/7/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 13Estadio Virgen de Las Nieves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tenisca66%

×Draw20%

Telde13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TeniscaExpected goals in this matchTelde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

0.76

Tenisca

2.01

Telde

0.76

Tenisca creates 164% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 17 away

1.78

creates per match

0.47

1.05

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

Tenisca

1.78

Telde

0.47

allows per match

Tenisca

1.05

Telde

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tenisca+0.00on par

Telde+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tenisca ↓

Telde →

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Tenisca or draw

87%

Tenisca or Telde

80%

Draw or Telde

34%

Winning margin

Tenisca wins by 2+

41%

Telde wins by 2+

Team goals

Tenisca 1+ goals

87%

Tenisca 2+ goals

59%

Tenisca 3+ goals

32%

Telde 1+ goals

53%

Telde 2+ goals

18%

Telde 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Tenisca (draw refunded)

83%

Telde (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tenisca at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.05 · 60 matches

Telde away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tenisca attack 1.78 + Telde defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.01

Telde attack 0.47 + Tenisca defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 66%?"

Tenisca scores more

66%

level

20%

Telde scores more

13%

Tenisca at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Tenisca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Tenisca 2–1 Telde

Tenisca beat Telde 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on December 7, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Virgen de Las Nieves in Santa Cruz de la Palma (La Palma).

Tenisca vs Telde — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Tenisca 2–1 Telde