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Telde vs Tenisca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Telde
Telde
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tenisca
Tenisca
4/12/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 30Estadio Pablo Hernández Morales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Telde40%
×Draw24%
Tenisca36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Telde
1.62
Tenisca
1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 60 away

creates per match

Telde
1.29
Tenisca
1.13

allows per match

Telde
1.94
Tenisca
1.95

finishing

Telde+0.00on par
Tenisca+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Telde ↓

Tenisca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Telde or draw
64%
Telde or Tenisca
76%
Draw or Tenisca
60%

Winning margin

Telde wins by 2+
20%
Tenisca wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Telde 1+ goals
80%
Telde 2+ goals
48%
Telde 3+ goals
22%
Tenisca 1+ goals
78%
Tenisca 2+ goals
45%
Tenisca 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Telde (draw refunded)
53%
Tenisca (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Telde at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

Tenisca away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.95 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Telde attack 1.29 + Tenisca defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.62

Tenisca attack 1.13 + Telde defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Telde scores more
40%
level
24%
Tenisca scores more
36%

Telde at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Telde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Telde 2 – 1 Tenisca

Telde beat Tenisca 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on April 12, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Pablo Hernández Morales in Telde (Gran Canaria).