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Tenisca vs Las Zocas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Tenisca
Tenisca
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Las Zocas
Las Zocas
3/27/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 29Estadio Virgen de Las Nieves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Tenisca69%
×Draw20%
Las Zocas11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tenisca
1.98
Las Zocas
0.65

Tenisca creates 205% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 16 away

creates per match

Tenisca
1.78
Las Zocas
0.25

allows per match

Tenisca
1.05
Las Zocas
2.19

finishing

Tenisca+0.00on par
Las Zocas+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tenisca ↓

Las Zocas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tenisca or draw
89%
Tenisca or Las Zocas
80%
Draw or Las Zocas
31%

Winning margin

Tenisca wins by 2+
43%
Las Zocas wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Tenisca 1+ goals
86%
Tenisca 2+ goals
59%
Tenisca 3+ goals
31%
Las Zocas 1+ goals
48%
Las Zocas 2+ goals
14%
Las Zocas 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Tenisca (draw refunded)
86%
Las Zocas (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tenisca at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.05 · 60 matches

Las Zocas away — creates 0.25, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tenisca attack 1.78 + Las Zocas defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.98

Las Zocas attack 0.25 + Tenisca defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Tenisca scores more
69%
level
20%
Las Zocas scores more
11%

Tenisca at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Tenisca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tenisca vs Las Zocas

Tenisca beat Las Zocas 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on March 27, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Virgen de Las Nieves in La Palma.