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Las Zocas vs Tenisca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Las Zocas
Las Zocas
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Tenisca
Tenisca
11/14/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 12Estadio Juanito Marrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Las Zocas33%
×Draw25%
Tenisca41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Zocas
1.29
Tenisca
1.47

Tenisca creates 14% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 60 away

creates per match

Las Zocas
0.63
Tenisca
1.13

allows per match

Las Zocas
1.81
Tenisca
1.95

finishing

Las Zocas+0.00on par
Tenisca+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Zocas ↓

Tenisca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Las Zocas or draw
59%
Las Zocas or Tenisca
75%
Draw or Tenisca
67%

Winning margin

Las Zocas wins by 2+
14%
Tenisca wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Las Zocas 1+ goals
72%
Las Zocas 2+ goals
37%
Las Zocas 3+ goals
14%
Tenisca 1+ goals
77%
Tenisca 2+ goals
43%
Tenisca 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Las Zocas (draw refunded)
45%
Tenisca (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Zocas at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

Tenisca away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.95 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Zocas attack 0.63 + Tenisca defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.29

Tenisca attack 1.13 + Las Zocas defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Las Zocas scores more
33%
level
25%
Tenisca scores more
41%

Tenisca at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tenisca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Las Zocas 1–2 Tenisca

Tenisca beat Las Zocas 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on November 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Juanito Marrero in Tenerife.