Tenerife 0–0 Ponferradina: Result & Stats

Tenerife

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ponferradina

1/14/2023

Segunda División · Round 23Estadio Heliodoro Rodríguez Lopéz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Tenerife46%

×Draw29%

Ponferradina25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TenerifeExpected goals in this matchPonferradina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.87

Tenerife

1.27

Ponferradina

0.87

Tenerife creates 46% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 84 away

1.15

creates per match

0.94

0.80

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Tenerife

1.15

Ponferradina

0.94

allows per match

Tenerife

0.80

Ponferradina

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tenerife+0.00on par

Ponferradina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tenerife ↓

Ponferradina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Tenerife or draw

75%

Tenerife or Ponferradina

71%

Draw or Ponferradina

54%

Winning margin

Tenerife wins by 2+

21%

Ponferradina wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Tenerife 1+ goals

72%

Tenerife 2+ goals

36%

Tenerife 3+ goals

14%

Ponferradina 1+ goals

58%

Ponferradina 2+ goals

22%

Ponferradina 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Tenerife (draw refunded)

64%

Ponferradina (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tenerife at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.80 · 149 matches

Ponferradina away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.40 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tenerife attack 1.15 + Ponferradina defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.27

Ponferradina attack 0.94 + Tenerife defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tenerife scores more

46%

level

29%

Ponferradina scores more

25%

Tenerife at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tenerife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

J. Mellot

Tenerife · D

7.9

Match Events

8'

29'

38'

62'

64'

Waldo Rubio← Elady Zorrilla

64'

Álex Corredera← Aitor Sanz

66'

José Naranjo← Derik Lacerda

67'

S. Abdulai← K. Nwakali

67'

Edu Espiau← Yuri

68'

Sabit Abdulai

74'

José León← Sergio González

74'

M. Dauda← Iván Romero

81'

José Amo

81'

Borja Garcés← Enric Gallego

90+5'

Heriberto Tavares

90'

Heriberto Tavares← Hugo Vallejo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TenerifePonferradina

Overview

54%Possession46%

16Total Shots1

8Corners1

14Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots1

3On Target0

8Off Target0

5Blocked1

8Inside Box1

8Outside Box0

Passing

54%Possession46%

433Total Passes370

346Accurate Passes276

80%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls15

1Yellow Cards6

2Offsides0