Ponferradina 2–2 Tenerife: Result & Stats

Ponferradina

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Tenerife

Derik Lacerda 68'

Dani Ojeda 27'

Waldo Rubio 82'

Iván Romero 39'

9/24/2022

Segunda División · Round 7Estadio El Toralín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Ponferradina43%

×Draw28%

Tenerife28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PonferradinaExpected goals in this matchTenerife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.96

Ponferradina

1.27

Tenerife

0.96

Ponferradina creates 32% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 149 away

1.29

creates per match

0.85

1.07

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Ponferradina

1.29

Tenerife

0.85

allows per match

Ponferradina

1.07

Tenerife

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ponferradina+0.00on par

Tenerife+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponferradina ↓

Tenerife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ponferradina or draw

72%

Ponferradina or Tenerife

72%

Draw or Tenerife

57%

Winning margin

Ponferradina wins by 2+

20%

Tenerife wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ponferradina 1+ goals

72%

Ponferradina 2+ goals

36%

Ponferradina 3+ goals

14%

Tenerife 1+ goals

62%

Tenerife 2+ goals

25%

Tenerife 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ponferradina (draw refunded)

61%

Tenerife (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponferradina at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.07 · 84 matches

Tenerife away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.26 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponferradina attack 1.29 + Tenerife defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Tenerife attack 0.85 + Ponferradina defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ponferradina scores more

43%

level

28%

Tenerife scores more

28%

Ponferradina at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ponferradina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Iván Romero

Tenerife · F

8.2

Match Events

27'

Dani Ojeda↳ José Naranjo

39'

Iván Romero↳ Nacho Martínez

51'

Jordan Lukaku

60'

Hugo Vallejo← Edu Espiau

61'

Derik Lacerda← Yuri

64'

Álex Corredera← Pablo Larrea

68'

Derik Lacerda

74'

Moi Delgado← J. Lukaku

75'

A. Appiah← Teto

75'

J. Mellot← Aitor Buñuel

77'

Álex Corredera

81'

Alexandru Paşcanu

82'

Waldo Rubio↳ Iván Romero

85'

Aldair← Paris Adot

85'

Heriberto Tavares← Dani Ojeda

85'

Javi Alonso← Iván Romero

90+8'

Heriberto Tavares

90+2'

Aldair

90+6'

Aitor Sanz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PonferradinaTenerife

Overview

64%Possession36%

15Total Shots10

1Corners4

21Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots10

6On Target4

8Off Target3

1Blocked3

8Inside Box3

7Outside Box7

Passing

64%Possession36%

524Total Passes285

453Accurate Passes206

86%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

21Fouls15

4Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

2Offsides5