Tenerife 3–0 Mérida AD: Result & Stats

Tenerife

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mérida AD

9/6/2025

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Estadio Heliodoro Rodríguez Lopéz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tenerife58%

×Draw25%

Mérida AD17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TenerifeExpected goals in this matchMérida AD

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.75

Tenerife

1.61

Mérida AD

0.75

Tenerife creates 115% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 37 away

1.95

creates per match

0.92

0.58

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Tenerife

1.95

Mérida AD

0.92

allows per match

Tenerife

0.58

Mérida AD

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tenerife+0.00on par

Mérida AD+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tenerife ↓

Mérida AD →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Tenerife or draw

83%

Tenerife or Mérida AD

75%

Draw or Mérida AD

42%

Winning margin

Tenerife wins by 2+

31%

Mérida AD wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Tenerife 1+ goals

80%

Tenerife 2+ goals

48%

Tenerife 3+ goals

22%

Mérida AD 1+ goals

53%

Mérida AD 2+ goals

17%

Mérida AD 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Tenerife (draw refunded)

77%

Mérida AD (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tenerife at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

Mérida AD away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tenerife attack 1.95 + Mérida AD defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.61

Mérida AD attack 0.92 + Tenerife defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Tenerife scores more

58%

level

25%

Mérida AD scores more

17%

Tenerife at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Tenerife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff