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Mérida AD vs Tenerife — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Mérida AD
Mérida AD
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tenerife
Tenerife
4/12/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 32Estadio Romano Jose Fouto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mérida AD31%
×Draw29%
Tenerife40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mérida AD
1.03
Tenerife
1.22

Tenerife creates 18% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

creates per match

Mérida AD
1.37
Tenerife
1.32

allows per match

Mérida AD
1.11
Tenerife
0.68

finishing

Mérida AD+0.00on par
Tenerife+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mérida AD ↓

Tenerife →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mérida AD or draw
60%
Mérida AD or Tenerife
71%
Draw or Tenerife
69%

Winning margin

Mérida AD wins by 2+
12%
Tenerife wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Mérida AD 1+ goals
64%
Mérida AD 2+ goals
28%
Mérida AD 3+ goals
9%
Tenerife 1+ goals
70%
Tenerife 2+ goals
34%
Tenerife 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Mérida AD (draw refunded)
43%
Tenerife (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mérida AD at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.11 · 38 matches

Tenerife away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mérida AD attack 1.37 + Tenerife defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.03

Tenerife attack 1.32 + Mérida AD defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mérida AD scores more
31%
level
29%
Tenerife scores more
40%

Tenerife at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tenerife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mérida AD vs Tenerife

Mérida AD and Tenerife drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 12, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Romano Jose Fouto in Mérida.