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Tenerife vs Mallorca — Segunda División 2018

Tenerife
Tenerife
Preview
16:00
Mallorca
Mallorca
11/22/2026Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 15
Big match
39%
Tenerife
model favours
39%32%29%

Mallorca win just 11% of their away games

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
71%
under 2.5 goals
37%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Tenerife39%
×Draw32%
Mallorca29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tenerife
1.04
Mallorca
0.85

Tenerife creates 22% more chances

Season form · 155 home / 45 away

creates per match

Tenerife
1.18
Mallorca
0.93

allows per match

Tenerife
0.78
Mallorca
0.91

finishing

Tenerife+0.00on par
Mallorca+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tenerife ↓

Mallorca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Tenerife or draw
71%
Tenerife or Mallorca
68%
Draw or Mallorca
61%

Winning margin

Tenerife wins by 2+
15%
Mallorca wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tenerife 1+ goals
65%
Tenerife 2+ goals
28%
Tenerife 3+ goals
9%
Mallorca 1+ goals
57%
Mallorca 2+ goals
21%
Mallorca 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tenerife (draw refunded)
57%
Mallorca (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tenerife at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.78 · 155 matches

Mallorca away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tenerife attack 1.18 + Mallorca defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.04

Mallorca attack 0.93 + Tenerife defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tenerife scores more
39%
level
32%
Mallorca scores more
29%

Tenerife at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tenerife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 30% of Mallorca’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Tenerife
LWLWL
Mallorca
WLLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tenerife vs Mallorca — Match Preview

Tenerife face Mallorca on November 22, 2026 in this Segunda División fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.