Tenerife 0–1 Mallorca: Result & Stats

Tenerife

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Mallorca

V. Mollejo 43'

5/19/2021

Segunda División · Round 40Estadio Heliodoro Rodríguez Lopéz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Tenerife39%

×Draw32%

Mallorca29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TenerifeExpected goals in this matchMallorca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

0.85

Tenerife

1.04

Mallorca

0.85

Tenerife creates 22% more chances

Season form · 155 home / 45 away

1.18

creates per match

0.93

0.78

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Tenerife

1.18

Mallorca

0.93

allows per match

Tenerife

0.78

Mallorca

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tenerife+0.00on par

Mallorca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tenerife ↓

Mallorca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Tenerife or draw

71%

Tenerife or Mallorca

68%

Draw or Mallorca

61%

Winning margin

Tenerife wins by 2+

15%

Mallorca wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Tenerife 1+ goals

65%

Tenerife 2+ goals

28%

Tenerife 3+ goals

9%

Mallorca 1+ goals

57%

Mallorca 2+ goals

21%

Mallorca 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Tenerife (draw refunded)

57%

Mallorca (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tenerife at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.78 · 155 matches

Mallorca away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tenerife attack 1.18 + Mallorca defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.04

Mallorca attack 0.93 + Tenerife defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tenerife scores more

39%

level

32%

Mallorca scores more

29%

Tenerife at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tenerife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

Aleksandar Sedlar

Mallorca · D

7.7

Match Events

12'

O. Kakabadze

19'

A. Jimenez

37'

J. Gonzalez← Nono

39'

J. Mboula

43'

V. Mollejo↳ A. Trajkovski

46'

A. Jimenez← A. Sanz

46'

O. Kakabadze← S. Moore

58'

Joselu← F. Sol

66'

R. Inigo← M. Cardona

66'

A. Trajkovski← Murilo

66'

I. Baba

67'

V. Vada

75'

V. Vada← G. Valera

77'

V. Mollejo← L. Junior

77'

J. Mboula← A. Sanchez

79'

A. Munoz

82'

A. Febas← D. Rodriguez

90+1'

S. Shashoua

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TenerifeMallorca

Overview

48%Possession52%

11Total Shots10

2Corners7

23Fouls9

Shots

11Total Shots10

3On Target5

3Off Target3

5Blocked2

7Inside Box5

4Outside Box5

Passing

48%Possession52%

398Total Passes415

333Accurate Passes355

84%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

23Fouls9

5Yellow Cards2

1Offsides4