Tenerife II 0–0 Lanzarote: Result & Stats

Tenerife II

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lanzarote

11/2/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 3Ciudad Deportiva de Geneto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Tenerife II49%

×Draw25%

Lanzarote25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tenerife IIExpected goals in this matchLanzarote

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.04

Tenerife II

1.56

Lanzarote

1.04

Tenerife II creates 50% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 108 away

1.83

creates per match

1.20

0.88

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Tenerife II

1.83

Lanzarote

1.20

allows per match

Tenerife II

0.88

Lanzarote

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tenerife II+0.00on par

Lanzarote+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tenerife II ↓

Lanzarote →

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Tenerife II or draw

75%

Tenerife II or Lanzarote

75%

Draw or Lanzarote

51%

Winning margin

Tenerife II wins by 2+

25%

Lanzarote wins by 2+

Team goals

Tenerife II 1+ goals

79%

Tenerife II 2+ goals

46%

Tenerife II 3+ goals

21%

Lanzarote 1+ goals

65%

Lanzarote 2+ goals

28%

Lanzarote 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Tenerife II (draw refunded)

66%

Lanzarote (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tenerife II at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.88 · 75 matches

Lanzarote away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.28 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tenerife II attack 1.83 + Lanzarote defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.56

Lanzarote attack 1.20 + Tenerife II defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tenerife II scores more

49%

level

25%

Lanzarote scores more

25%

Tenerife II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tenerife II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'

I. Traoré← Julyan Ayala

54'

Bruno Marrero← Marcos Marrero

54'

M. Cedrés← Jesús

74'

Vicente Meca← Ayoze

80'

David Cova← Alejandro Fuentes

82'

Machín← Rodrigo

89'

Eduardo Suárez← Raúl

89'

Yoni← César Mesa

Tenerife

Lanzarote

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Mazinho

54'▲Bruno Marrero←▼Marcos Marrero

54'▲M. Cedrés←▼Jesús

80'▲David Cova←▼Alejandro Fuentes

89'▲Eduardo Suárez←▼Raúl

89'▲Yoni←▼César Mesa

Tenerife II substitutes

MarreroCedrésCovaSuárezYoni

Manager: Mateo García

51'▲I. Traoré←▼Julyan Ayala

74'▲Vicente Meca←▼Ayoze

82'▲Machín←▼Rodrigo

Lanzarote substitutes

TraoréMecaMachín