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Lanzarote vs Tenerife II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Lanzarote
Lanzarote
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Tenerife II
Tenerife II
3/3/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 23Ciudad Deportiva de Lanzarote

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Lanzarote43%
×Draw28%
Tenerife II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lanzarote
1.33
Tenerife II
1.04

Lanzarote creates 28% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 74 away

creates per match

Lanzarote
1.58
Tenerife II
1.46

allows per match

Lanzarote
0.63
Tenerife II
1.08

finishing

Lanzarote+0.00on par
Tenerife II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lanzarote ↓

Tenerife II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Lanzarote or draw
71%
Lanzarote or Tenerife II
72%
Draw or Tenerife II
57%

Winning margin

Lanzarote wins by 2+
20%
Tenerife II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lanzarote 1+ goals
74%
Lanzarote 2+ goals
38%
Lanzarote 3+ goals
15%
Tenerife II 1+ goals
65%
Tenerife II 2+ goals
28%
Tenerife II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Lanzarote (draw refunded)
60%
Tenerife II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lanzarote at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.63 · 107 matches

Tenerife II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lanzarote attack 1.58 + Tenerife II defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.33

Tenerife II attack 1.46 + Lanzarote defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lanzarote scores more
43%
level
28%
Tenerife II scores more
29%

Lanzarote at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lanzarote will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lanzarote vs Tenerife II

Tenerife II beat Lanzarote 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Lanzarote in Lanzarote.