Tenerife II 2–0 Herbania: Result & Stats

Tenerife II

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Herbania

1/9/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 18Ciudad Deportiva de Geneto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Tenerife II59%

×Draw24%

Herbania17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tenerife IIExpected goals in this matchHerbania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.77

Tenerife II

1.66

Herbania

0.77

Tenerife II creates 116% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 67 away

1.83

creates per match

0.66

0.88

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Tenerife II

1.83

Herbania

0.66

allows per match

Tenerife II

0.88

Herbania

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tenerife II+0.00on par

Herbania+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tenerife II ↓

Herbania →

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Tenerife II or draw

83%

Tenerife II or Herbania

76%

Draw or Herbania

41%

Winning margin

Tenerife II wins by 2+

32%

Herbania wins by 2+

Team goals

Tenerife II 1+ goals

81%

Tenerife II 2+ goals

49%

Tenerife II 3+ goals

23%

Herbania 1+ goals

54%

Herbania 2+ goals

18%

Herbania 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Tenerife II (draw refunded)

77%

Herbania (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tenerife II at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.88 · 75 matches

Herbania away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.49 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tenerife II attack 1.83 + Herbania defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.66

Herbania attack 0.66 + Tenerife II defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Tenerife II scores more

59%

level

24%

Herbania scores more

17%

Tenerife II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Tenerife II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff