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Herbania vs Tenerife II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Herbania
Herbania
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tenerife II
Tenerife II
9/5/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 1Estadio Municipal de Los Pozos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Herbania33%
×Draw27%
Tenerife II40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Herbania
1.18
Tenerife II
1.31

Tenerife II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 74 away

creates per match

Herbania
1.27
Tenerife II
1.46

allows per match

Herbania
1.16
Tenerife II
1.08

finishing

Herbania+0.00on par
Tenerife II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Herbania ↓

Tenerife II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Herbania or draw
60%
Herbania or Tenerife II
73%
Draw or Tenerife II
67%

Winning margin

Herbania wins by 2+
14%
Tenerife II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Herbania 1+ goals
69%
Herbania 2+ goals
33%
Herbania 3+ goals
12%
Tenerife II 1+ goals
73%
Tenerife II 2+ goals
38%
Tenerife II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Herbania (draw refunded)
46%
Tenerife II (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Herbania at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.16 · 67 matches

Tenerife II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Herbania attack 1.27 + Tenerife II defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.18

Tenerife II attack 1.46 + Herbania defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Herbania scores more
33%
level
27%
Tenerife II scores more
40%

Tenerife II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tenerife II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Herbania vs Tenerife II

Herbania beat Tenerife II 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on September 5, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Los Pozos in Puerto Rosario.