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Tenerife II vs Estrella — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Tenerife II
Tenerife II
FT
6 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Estrella
Estrella
4/2/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 27Ciudad Deportiva de Geneto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Tenerife II69%
×Draw19%
Estrella12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tenerife II
2.10
Estrella
0.72

Tenerife II creates 192% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 32 away

creates per match

Tenerife II
1.83
Estrella
0.56

allows per match

Tenerife II
0.88
Estrella
2.38

finishing

Tenerife II+0.00on par
Estrella+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tenerife II ↓

Estrella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Tenerife II or draw
88%
Tenerife II or Estrella
81%
Draw or Estrella
31%

Winning margin

Tenerife II wins by 2+
44%
Estrella wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Tenerife II 1+ goals
88%
Tenerife II 2+ goals
62%
Tenerife II 3+ goals
35%
Estrella 1+ goals
51%
Estrella 2+ goals
16%
Estrella 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Tenerife II (draw refunded)
86%
Estrella (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tenerife II at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.88 · 75 matches

Estrella away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.38 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tenerife II attack 1.83 + Estrella defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.10

Estrella attack 0.56 + Tenerife II defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Tenerife II scores more
69%
level
19%
Estrella scores more
12%

Tenerife II at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Tenerife II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Tenerife II 6–0 Estrella

Tenerife II beat Estrella 6-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on April 2, 2023.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Geneto in Tenerife.