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Estrella vs Tenerife II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Estrella
Estrella
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tenerife II
Tenerife II
12/2/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 12Estadio Las Palmitas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Estrella27%
×Draw26%
Tenerife II47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estrella
1.02
Tenerife II
1.45

Tenerife II creates 42% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 74 away

creates per match

Estrella
0.97
Tenerife II
1.46

allows per match

Estrella
1.44
Tenerife II
1.08

finishing

Estrella+0.00on par
Tenerife II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estrella ↓

Tenerife II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Estrella or draw
53%
Estrella or Tenerife II
74%
Draw or Tenerife II
73%

Winning margin

Estrella wins by 2+
10%
Tenerife II wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Estrella 1+ goals
64%
Estrella 2+ goals
27%
Estrella 3+ goals
8%
Tenerife II 1+ goals
77%
Tenerife II 2+ goals
42%
Tenerife II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Estrella (draw refunded)
36%
Tenerife II (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estrella at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

Tenerife II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estrella attack 0.97 + Tenerife II defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.02

Tenerife II attack 1.46 + Estrella defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Estrella scores more
27%
level
26%
Tenerife II scores more
47%

Tenerife II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tenerife II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Estrella 0–1 Tenerife II

Tenerife II beat Estrella 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on December 2, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Las Palmitas in Gran Canaria.