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Tenerife II vs Atlético Paso — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Tenerife II
Tenerife II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Paso
Atlético Paso
11/1/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 3Ciudad Deportiva de Geneto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Tenerife II46%
×Draw27%
Atlético Paso27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tenerife II
1.41
Atlético Paso
1.00

Tenerife II creates 41% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 59 away

creates per match

Tenerife II
1.83
Atlético Paso
1.12

allows per match

Tenerife II
0.88
Atlético Paso
0.98

finishing

Tenerife II+0.00on par
Atlético Paso+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tenerife II ↓

Atlético Paso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tenerife II or draw
73%
Tenerife II or Atlético Paso
73%
Draw or Atlético Paso
54%

Winning margin

Tenerife II wins by 2+
22%
Atlético Paso wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tenerife II 1+ goals
76%
Tenerife II 2+ goals
41%
Tenerife II 3+ goals
17%
Atlético Paso 1+ goals
63%
Atlético Paso 2+ goals
26%
Atlético Paso 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tenerife II (draw refunded)
63%
Atlético Paso (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tenerife II at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.88 · 75 matches

Atlético Paso away — creates 1.12, concedes 0.98 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tenerife II attack 1.83 + Atlético Paso defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.41

Atlético Paso attack 1.12 + Tenerife II defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tenerife II scores more
46%
level
27%
Atlético Paso scores more
27%

Tenerife II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tenerife II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tenerife II 1 – 2 Atlético Paso

Atlético Paso beat Tenerife II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on November 1, 2020.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Geneto in Tenerife.