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Atlético Paso vs Tenerife II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Atlético Paso
Atlético Paso
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Tenerife II
Tenerife II
3/28/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 14Campo Municipal de El Paso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Atlético Paso48%
×Draw26%
Tenerife II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Paso
1.53
Tenerife II
1.08

Atlético Paso creates 42% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 74 away

creates per match

Atlético Paso
1.98
Tenerife II
1.46

allows per match

Atlético Paso
0.70
Tenerife II
1.08

finishing

Atlético Paso+0.00on par
Tenerife II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Paso ↓

Tenerife II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Atlético Paso or draw
73%
Atlético Paso or Tenerife II
74%
Draw or Tenerife II
52%

Winning margin

Atlético Paso wins by 2+
24%
Tenerife II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Atlético Paso 1+ goals
78%
Atlético Paso 2+ goals
45%
Atlético Paso 3+ goals
20%
Tenerife II 1+ goals
66%
Tenerife II 2+ goals
29%
Tenerife II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Atlético Paso (draw refunded)
64%
Tenerife II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Paso at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.70 · 60 matches

Tenerife II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Paso attack 1.98 + Tenerife II defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.53

Tenerife II attack 1.46 + Atlético Paso defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Atlético Paso scores more
48%
level
26%
Tenerife II scores more
27%

Atlético Paso at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atlético Paso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Paso vs Tenerife II

Atlético Paso beat Tenerife II 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on March 28, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de El Paso in El Paso.