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Tenax vs Manica Diamonds — Premier Soccer League 2026

Tenax
Tenax
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Manica Diamonds
Manica Diamonds
11/13/2022Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 34Sakubva Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tenax29%
×Draw31%
Manica Diamonds39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tenax
0.87
Manica Diamonds
1.05

Manica Diamonds creates 21% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 96 away

creates per match

Tenax
0.65
Manica Diamonds
0.69

allows per match

Tenax
1.41
Manica Diamonds
1.09

finishing

Tenax+0.00on par
Manica Diamonds+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tenax ↓

Manica Diamonds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Tenax or draw
61%
Tenax or Manica Diamonds
69%
Draw or Manica Diamonds
71%

Winning margin

Tenax wins by 2+
10%
Manica Diamonds wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Tenax 1+ goals
58%
Tenax 2+ goals
22%
Tenax 3+ goals
6%
Manica Diamonds 1+ goals
65%
Manica Diamonds 2+ goals
28%
Manica Diamonds 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tenax (draw refunded)
43%
Manica Diamonds (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tenax at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Manica Diamonds away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.09 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tenax attack 0.65 + Manica Diamonds defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.87

Manica Diamonds attack 0.69 + Tenax defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tenax scores more
29%
level
31%
Manica Diamonds scores more
39%

Manica Diamonds at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Manica Diamonds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tenax vs Manica Diamonds

Tenax and Manica Diamonds drew 0-0 in Premier Soccer League on November 13, 2022.

The match was played at Sakubva Stadium in Mutare.