Manica Diamonds 1–0 Tenax: Result & Stats

Manica Diamonds

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tenax

6/5/2022

Premier Soccer League · Round 17Sakubva Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Manica Diamonds60%

×Draw27%

Tenax13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manica DiamondsExpected goals in this matchTenax

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.52

Manica Diamonds

1.45

Tenax

0.52

Manica Diamonds creates 179% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 17 away

1.07

creates per match

0.47

0.58

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Manica Diamonds

1.07

Tenax

0.47

allows per match

Manica Diamonds

0.58

Tenax

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manica Diamonds+0.00on par

Tenax+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manica Diamonds ↓

Tenax →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Manica Diamonds or draw

87%

Manica Diamonds or Tenax

73%

Draw or Tenax

40%

Winning margin

Manica Diamonds wins by 2+

31%

Tenax wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Manica Diamonds 1+ goals

77%

Manica Diamonds 2+ goals

42%

Manica Diamonds 3+ goals

18%

Tenax 1+ goals

41%

Tenax 2+ goals

10%

Tenax 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Manica Diamonds (draw refunded)

82%

Tenax (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manica Diamonds at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.58 · 96 matches

Tenax away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manica Diamonds attack 1.07 + Tenax defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.45

Tenax attack 0.47 + Manica Diamonds defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Manica Diamonds scores more

60%

level

27%

Tenax scores more

13%

Manica Diamonds at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Manica Diamonds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff