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TEMPO Partizánske vs Spartak Myjava — 3. liga - West 2020

TEMPO Partizánske
TEMPO Partizánske
FT
0 – 2
Spartak Myjava
Spartak Myjava
6/17/20223. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 32Štadión Karola Jokla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

TEMPO Partizánske23%
×Draw23%
Spartak Myjava53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TEMPO Partizánske
1.08
Spartak Myjava
1.77

Spartak Myjava creates 64% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 55 away

creates per match

TEMPO Partizánske
1.06
Spartak Myjava
1.47

allows per match

TEMPO Partizánske
2.06
Spartak Myjava
1.09

finishing

TEMPO Partizánske+0.00on par
Spartak Myjava+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TEMPO Partizánske ↓

Spartak Myjava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

TEMPO Partizánske or draw
47%
TEMPO Partizánske or Spartak Myjava
77%
Draw or Spartak Myjava
77%

Winning margin

TEMPO Partizánske wins by 2+
9%
Spartak Myjava wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

TEMPO Partizánske 1+ goals
66%
TEMPO Partizánske 2+ goals
29%
TEMPO Partizánske 3+ goals
10%
Spartak Myjava 1+ goals
83%
Spartak Myjava 2+ goals
53%
Spartak Myjava 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

TEMPO Partizánske (draw refunded)
30%
Spartak Myjava (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TEMPO Partizánske at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

Spartak Myjava away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.09 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TEMPO Partizánske attack 1.06 + Spartak Myjava defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.08

Spartak Myjava attack 1.47 + TEMPO Partizánske defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

TEMPO Partizánske scores more
23%
level
23%
Spartak Myjava scores more
53%

Spartak Myjava at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Spartak Myjava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TEMPO Partizánske vs Spartak Myjava

Spartak Myjava beat TEMPO Partizánske 2-0 in 3. liga - West on June 17, 2022.

The match was played at Štadión Karola Jokla in Partizánske.