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Spartak Myjava vs TEMPO Partizánske — 3. liga - West 2020

Spartak Myjava
Spartak Myjava
FT
3 – 1
TEMPO Partizánske
TEMPO Partizánske
2/26/20223. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 15Umelá tráva Myjava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Spartak Myjava71%
×Draw17%
TEMPO Partizánske12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Myjava
2.46
TEMPO Partizánske
0.90

Spartak Myjava creates 173% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 17 away

creates per match

Spartak Myjava
2.27
TEMPO Partizánske
1.00

allows per match

Spartak Myjava
0.79
TEMPO Partizánske
2.65

finishing

Spartak Myjava+0.00on par
TEMPO Partizánske+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Myjava ↓

TEMPO Partizánske →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Spartak Myjava or draw
88%
Spartak Myjava or TEMPO Partizánske
83%
Draw or TEMPO Partizánske
29%

Winning margin

Spartak Myjava wins by 2+
49%
TEMPO Partizánske wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Spartak Myjava 1+ goals
91%
Spartak Myjava 2+ goals
70%
Spartak Myjava 3+ goals
44%
TEMPO Partizánske 1+ goals
59%
TEMPO Partizánske 2+ goals
23%
TEMPO Partizánske 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Spartak Myjava (draw refunded)
86%
TEMPO Partizánske (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Myjava at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.79 · 56 matches

TEMPO Partizánske away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Myjava attack 2.27 + TEMPO Partizánske defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.46

TEMPO Partizánske attack 1.00 + Spartak Myjava defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Spartak Myjava scores more
71%
level
17%
TEMPO Partizánske scores more
12%

Spartak Myjava at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Spartak Myjava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Spartak Myjava 3–1 TEMPO Partizánske

Spartak Myjava beat TEMPO Partizánske 3-1 in 3. liga - West on February 26, 2022.

The match was played at Umelá tráva Myjava in Myjava.