TEMPO Partizánske 0–2 Slovan Duslo Šaľa

TEMPO Partizánske

FT

0 – 2

Slovan Duslo Šaľa

11/6/2021

3. liga - West · West - 14Štadión Karola Jokla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

TEMPO Partizánske32%

×Draw24%

Slovan Duslo Šaľa45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TEMPO PartizánskeExpected goals in this matchSlovan Duslo Šaľa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.69

TEMPO Partizánske

1.39

Slovan Duslo Šaľa

1.69

Slovan Duslo Šaľa creates 22% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 85 away

1.06

creates per match

1.31

2.06

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

TEMPO Partizánske

1.06

Slovan Duslo Šaľa

1.31

allows per match

TEMPO Partizánske

2.06

Slovan Duslo Šaľa

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TEMPO Partizánske+0.00on par

Slovan Duslo Šaľa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TEMPO Partizánske ↓

Slovan Duslo Šaľa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

TEMPO Partizánske or draw

55%

TEMPO Partizánske or Slovan Duslo Šaľa

76%

Draw or Slovan Duslo Šaľa

68%

Winning margin

TEMPO Partizánske wins by 2+

14%

Slovan Duslo Šaľa wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

TEMPO Partizánske 1+ goals

75%

TEMPO Partizánske 2+ goals

40%

TEMPO Partizánske 3+ goals

16%

Slovan Duslo Šaľa 1+ goals

82%

Slovan Duslo Šaľa 2+ goals

50%

Slovan Duslo Šaľa 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

TEMPO Partizánske (draw refunded)

42%

Slovan Duslo Šaľa (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TEMPO Partizánske at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

Slovan Duslo Šaľa away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.71 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TEMPO Partizánske attack 1.06 + Slovan Duslo Šaľa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.39

Slovan Duslo Šaľa attack 1.31 + TEMPO Partizánske defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

TEMPO Partizánske scores more

32%

level

24%

Slovan Duslo Šaľa scores more

45%

Slovan Duslo Šaľa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Slovan Duslo Šaľa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff