TEMPO Partizánske 2–1 Nové Mesto nad Váhom

TEMPO Partizánske

FT

2 – 1

Nové Mesto nad Váhom

8/7/2021

3. liga - West · West - 1Štadión Karola Jokla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

TEMPO Partizánske35%

×Draw24%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TEMPO PartizánskeExpected goals in this matchNové Mesto nad Váhom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.56

TEMPO Partizánske

1.41

Nové Mesto nad Váhom

1.56

Nové Mesto nad Váhom creates 11% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 54 away

1.06

creates per match

1.07

2.06

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

TEMPO Partizánske

1.06

Nové Mesto nad Váhom

1.07

allows per match

TEMPO Partizánske

2.06

Nové Mesto nad Váhom

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TEMPO Partizánske+0.00on par

Nové Mesto nad Váhom+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TEMPO Partizánske ↓

Nové Mesto nad Váhom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

TEMPO Partizánske or draw

59%

TEMPO Partizánske or Nové Mesto nad Váhom

76%

Draw or Nové Mesto nad Váhom

65%

Winning margin

TEMPO Partizánske wins by 2+

16%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

TEMPO Partizánske 1+ goals

76%

TEMPO Partizánske 2+ goals

41%

TEMPO Partizánske 3+ goals

17%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom 1+ goals

79%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom 2+ goals

46%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

TEMPO Partizánske (draw refunded)

46%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TEMPO Partizánske at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

Nové Mesto nad Váhom away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.76 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TEMPO Partizánske attack 1.06 + Nové Mesto nad Váhom defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.41

Nové Mesto nad Váhom attack 1.07 + TEMPO Partizánske defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

TEMPO Partizánske scores more

35%

level

24%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom scores more

41%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Nové Mesto nad Váhom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff