Nové Mesto nad Váhom 2–1 TEMPO Partizánske

Nové Mesto nad Váhom

FT

2 – 1

TEMPO Partizánske

3/12/2022

3. liga - West · West - 18Štadión AFC Považan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nové Mesto nad Váhom57%

×Draw21%

TEMPO Partizánske22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nové Mesto nad VáhomExpected goals in this matchTEMPO Partizánske

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.14

1.27

Nové Mesto nad Váhom

2.14

TEMPO Partizánske

1.27

Nové Mesto nad Váhom creates 69% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 17 away

1.63

creates per match

1.00

1.54

allows per match

2.65

creates per match

Nové Mesto nad Váhom

1.63

TEMPO Partizánske

1.00

allows per match

Nové Mesto nad Váhom

1.54

TEMPO Partizánske

2.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nové Mesto nad Váhom+0.00on par

TEMPO Partizánske+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nové Mesto nad Váhom ↓

TEMPO Partizánske →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Nové Mesto nad Váhom or draw

78%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom or TEMPO Partizánske

79%

Draw or TEMPO Partizánske

43%

Winning margin

Nové Mesto nad Váhom wins by 2+

35%

TEMPO Partizánske wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Nové Mesto nad Váhom 1+ goals

88%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom 2+ goals

63%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom 3+ goals

36%

TEMPO Partizánske 1+ goals

72%

TEMPO Partizánske 2+ goals

36%

TEMPO Partizánske 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Nové Mesto nad Váhom (draw refunded)

72%

TEMPO Partizánske (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nové Mesto nad Váhom at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.54 · 54 matches

TEMPO Partizánske away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nové Mesto nad Váhom attack 1.63 + TEMPO Partizánske defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.14

TEMPO Partizánske attack 1.00 + Nové Mesto nad Váhom defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Nové Mesto nad Váhom scores more

57%

level

21%

TEMPO Partizánske scores more

22%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Nové Mesto nad Váhom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff