Temperley 2–1 Sarmiento Junin: Result & Stats

Temperley

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sarmiento Junin

2/10/2019

Primera Nacional · Round 15Estadio Alfredo Martín Beranger (Temperley, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Temperley33%

×Draw31%

Sarmiento Junin36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TemperleyExpected goals in this matchSarmiento Junin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.01

Temperley

0.96

Sarmiento Junin

1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 125 home / 28 away

1.12

creates per match

1.18

0.84

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Temperley

1.12

Sarmiento Junin

1.18

allows per match

Temperley

0.84

Sarmiento Junin

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Temperley+0.00on par

Sarmiento Junin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Temperley ↓

Sarmiento Junin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Temperley or draw

64%

Temperley or Sarmiento Junin

69%

Draw or Sarmiento Junin

67%

Winning margin

Temperley wins by 2+

12%

Sarmiento Junin wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Temperley 1+ goals

62%

Temperley 2+ goals

25%

Temperley 3+ goals

7%

Sarmiento Junin 1+ goals

64%

Sarmiento Junin 2+ goals

27%

Sarmiento Junin 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Temperley (draw refunded)

48%

Sarmiento Junin (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Temperley at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.84 · 125 matches

Sarmiento Junin away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.79 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Temperley attack 1.12 + Sarmiento Junin defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.96

Sarmiento Junin attack 1.18 + Temperley defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Temperley scores more

33%

level

31%

Sarmiento Junin scores more

36%

Sarmiento Junin at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Sarmiento Junin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff