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Sarmiento Junin vs Temperley — Copa Argentina 2026

Sarmiento Junin
Sarmiento Junin
AET
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Temperley
Temperley
2/27/2024Copa ArgentinaCopa Argentina · 1st RoundEstadio Ciudad de Caseros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sarmiento Junin9%
×Draw22%
Temperley69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sarmiento Junin
0.48
Temperley
1.77

Temperley creates 269% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Sarmiento Junin
0.57
Temperley
2.40

allows per match

Sarmiento Junin
1.14
Temperley
0.40

finishing

Sarmiento Junin+0.00on par
Temperley+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarmiento Junin ↓

Temperley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–119%
0–217%
0–310%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sarmiento Junin or draw
31%
Sarmiento Junin or Temperley
78%
Draw or Temperley
91%

Winning margin

Sarmiento Junin wins by 2+
2%
Temperley wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Sarmiento Junin 1+ goals
38%
Sarmiento Junin 2+ goals
8%
Sarmiento Junin 3+ goals
1%
Temperley 1+ goals
83%
Temperley 2+ goals
53%
Temperley 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Sarmiento Junin (draw refunded)
12%
Temperley (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarmiento Junin at home — creates 0.57, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Temperley away — creates 2.40, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarmiento Junin attack 0.57 + Temperley defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.48

Temperley attack 2.40 + Sarmiento Junin defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Sarmiento Junin scores more
9%
level
22%
Temperley scores more
69%

Temperley at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Temperley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Argentina: Sarmiento Junin 1–1 Temperley

Sarmiento Junin and Temperley drew 1-1 in Copa Argentina on February 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Caseros in Caseros, Provincia de Buenos Aires.