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Temnic 1924 vs Budućnost Popovac — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Temnic 1924
Temnic 1924
CANC
00:00
Budućnost Popovac
Budućnost Popovac
4/12/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Temnic 192424%
×Draw25%
Budućnost Popovac51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Temnic 1924
1.04
Budućnost Popovac
1.64

Budućnost Popovac creates 58% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 87 away

creates per match

Temnic 1924
0.63
Budućnost Popovac
1.40

allows per match

Temnic 1924
1.88
Budućnost Popovac
1.45

finishing

Temnic 1924+0.00on par
Budućnost Popovac+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Temnic 1924 ↓

Budućnost Popovac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Temnic 1924 or draw
49%
Temnic 1924 or Budućnost Popovac
75%
Draw or Budućnost Popovac
76%

Winning margin

Temnic 1924 wins by 2+
9%
Budućnost Popovac wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Temnic 1924 1+ goals
65%
Temnic 1924 2+ goals
28%
Temnic 1924 3+ goals
9%
Budućnost Popovac 1+ goals
81%
Budućnost Popovac 2+ goals
49%
Budućnost Popovac 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Temnic 1924 (draw refunded)
32%
Budućnost Popovac (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Temnic 1924 at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

Budućnost Popovac away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.45 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Temnic 1924 attack 0.63 + Budućnost Popovac defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.04

Budućnost Popovac attack 1.40 + Temnic 1924 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Temnic 1924 scores more
24%
level
25%
Budućnost Popovac scores more
51%

Budućnost Popovac at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Budućnost Popovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Temnic 1924 face Budućnost Popovac (Srpska Liga - East)

Srpska Liga - East returns with Temnic 1924 hosting Budućnost Popovac. Match starts April 12, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.