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Budućnost Popovac vs Temnic 1924 — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Budućnost Popovac
Budućnost Popovac
FT
4 – 2
Temnic 1924
Temnic 1924
9/29/2019Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 7Stadion Popovac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Budućnost Popovac81%
×Draw12%
Temnic 19247%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budućnost Popovac
2.98
Temnic 1924
0.76

Budućnost Popovac creates 292% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 9 away

creates per match

Budućnost Popovac
1.84
Temnic 1924
0.44

allows per match

Budućnost Popovac
1.07
Temnic 1924
4.11

finishing

Budućnost Popovac+0.00on par
Temnic 1924+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budućnost Popovac ↓

Temnic 1924 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Budućnost Popovac or draw
93%
Budućnost Popovac or Temnic 1924
88%
Draw or Temnic 1924
19%

Winning margin

Budućnost Popovac wins by 2+
62%
Temnic 1924 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Budućnost Popovac 1+ goals
95%
Budućnost Popovac 2+ goals
79%
Budućnost Popovac 3+ goals
56%
Temnic 1924 1+ goals
53%
Temnic 1924 2+ goals
18%
Temnic 1924 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Budućnost Popovac (draw refunded)
92%
Temnic 1924 (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budućnost Popovac at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.07 · 87 matches

Temnic 1924 away — creates 0.44, concedes 4.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budućnost Popovac attack 1.84 + Temnic 1924 defence 4.11 → ÷2 → 2.98

Temnic 1924 attack 0.44 + Budućnost Popovac defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Budućnost Popovac scores more
81%
level
12%
Temnic 1924 scores more
7%

Budućnost Popovac at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Budućnost Popovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Budućnost Popovac 4–2 Temnic 1924

Budućnost Popovac beat Temnic 1924 4-2 in Srpska Liga - East on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Popovac in Popovac.