Telstar 2–2 FC Volendam: Result & Stats

Telstar

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

FC Volendam

D. Bakker 54'

Y. El Kachati 38'

A. Plat 64'

H. Veerman 32'

11/3/2024

Eerste Divisie · Round 13711 Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Telstar36%

×Draw24%

FC Volendam40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TelstarExpected goals in this matchFC Volendam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.59

Telstar

1.50

FC Volendam

1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 130 home / 91 away

1.54

creates per match

1.68

1.51

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Telstar

1.54

FC Volendam

1.68

allows per match

Telstar

1.51

FC Volendam

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Telstar+0.00on par

FC Volendam+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Telstar ↓

FC Volendam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Telstar or draw

60%

Telstar or FC Volendam

76%

Draw or FC Volendam

64%

Winning margin

Telstar wins by 2+

17%

FC Volendam wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Telstar 1+ goals

78%

Telstar 2+ goals

44%

Telstar 3+ goals

19%

FC Volendam 1+ goals

80%

FC Volendam 2+ goals

47%

FC Volendam 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Telstar (draw refunded)

47%

FC Volendam (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Telstar at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.51 · 130 matches

FC Volendam away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.47 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Telstar attack 1.54 + FC Volendam defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.50

FC Volendam attack 1.68 + Telstar defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Telstar scores more

36%

level

24%

FC Volendam scores more

40%

FC Volendam at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Volendam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

H. Veerman

FC Volendam · F

8.7

Match Events

30'

Jeff Hardeveld

32'

H. Veerman

38'

Y. El Kachati↳ M. Kaandorp

54'

D. Bakker↳ Y. El Kachati

64'

A. Plat↳ H. Veerman

69'

Danny Bakker

73'

Guus Offerhaus

74'

M. Hamdaoui← M. Kaandorp

74'

J. Turfkruier← J. Hardeveld

81'

N. Bukala← R. Mühren

84'

T. Owusu← T. Noslin

84'

R. van Ekeris← Y. El Kachati

89'

Henk Veerman

89'

Bilal Ould-Chikh

90+2'

Brandley Kuwas

90+3'

S. Hagedoorn← Z. Eddahchouri

90'

E. Manu← J. Jacobs

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TelstarFC

Overview

49%Possession51%

14Total Shots15

3Corners7

13Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots15

6On Target6

4Off Target5

4Blocked4

11Inside Box11

3Outside Box4

Passing

49%Possession51%

361Total Passes386

285Accurate Passes290

79%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls12

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1