FC Volendam 3–0 Telstar: Result & Stats

FC Volendam

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Telstar

H. Veerman 76', 59', 56'

3/11/2025

Eerste Divisie · Round 31Kras Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

FC Volendam53%

×Draw22%

Telstar25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC VolendamExpected goals in this matchTelstar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.27

FC Volendam

1.94

Telstar

1.27

FC Volendam creates 53% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 130 away

2.19

creates per match

1.18

1.36

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

FC Volendam

2.19

Telstar

1.18

allows per match

FC Volendam

1.36

Telstar

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Volendam+0.00on par

Telstar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Volendam ↓

Telstar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

FC Volendam or draw

75%

FC Volendam or Telstar

78%

Draw or Telstar

47%

Winning margin

FC Volendam wins by 2+

30%

Telstar wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FC Volendam 1+ goals

86%

FC Volendam 2+ goals

58%

FC Volendam 3+ goals

30%

Telstar 1+ goals

72%

Telstar 2+ goals

36%

Telstar 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

FC Volendam (draw refunded)

68%

Telstar (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Volendam at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.36 · 91 matches

Telstar away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.69 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Volendam attack 2.19 + Telstar defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.94

Telstar attack 1.18 + FC Volendam defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

FC Volendam scores more

53%

level

22%

Telstar scores more

25%

FC Volendam at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "FC Volendam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

H. Veerman

FC Volendam · F

10.0

Match Events

56'

H. Veerman↳ B. Ould-Chikh

59'

H. Veerman↳ R. Mühren

68'

N. Rossen← M. Apau

68'

M. Kaandorp← M. Hamdaoui

68'

A. Douiri← T. Noslin

71'

J. Jacobs← R. Mühren

74'

J. Turfkruier← T. Owusu

76'

H. Veerman↳ B. Ould-Chikh

77'

V. Anita← A. Plat

77'

N. Bukala← B. Kuwas

80'

R. Kharchouch← S. Hetli

84'

A. Oehlers← B. Ould-Chikh

84'

S. Esajas← M. de Haan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCTelstar

Overview

56%Possession44%

12Total Shots13

7Corners4

15Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots13

6On Target5

5Off Target5

1Blocked3

10Inside Box9

2Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

433Total Passes341

352Accurate Passes260

81%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls10

3Offsides1