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TelOne vs Ngezi Platinum — Premier Soccer League 2026

TelOne
TelOne
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ngezi Platinum
Ngezi Platinum
W. Navaya 52'
T. Macheke 3'
M. Gaki 46'
4/12/2025Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 6Ascot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

TelOne32%
×Draw32%
Ngezi Platinum35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TelOne
0.90
Ngezi Platinum
0.95

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 100 away

creates per match

TelOne
1.00
Ngezi Platinum
0.87

allows per match

TelOne
1.03
Ngezi Platinum
0.79

finishing

TelOne+0.00on par
Ngezi Platinum+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TelOne ↓

Ngezi Platinum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

TelOne or draw
65%
TelOne or Ngezi Platinum
68%
Draw or Ngezi Platinum
68%

Winning margin

TelOne wins by 2+
11%
Ngezi Platinum wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

TelOne 1+ goals
59%
TelOne 2+ goals
23%
TelOne 3+ goals
6%
Ngezi Platinum 1+ goals
61%
Ngezi Platinum 2+ goals
25%
Ngezi Platinum 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

TelOne (draw refunded)
48%
Ngezi Platinum (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TelOne at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

Ngezi Platinum away — creates 0.87, concedes 0.79 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TelOne attack 1.00 + Ngezi Platinum defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.90

Ngezi Platinum attack 0.87 + TelOne defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

TelOne scores more
32%
level
32%
Ngezi Platinum scores more
35%

Ngezi Platinum at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Ngezi Platinum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
T. Macheke
46'
M. Gaki
52'
W. Navaya

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TelOne vs Ngezi Platinum

TelOne beat Ngezi Platinum 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on April 12, 2025.

Goals: T. Macheke (3'), M. Gaki (46'), W. Navaya (52').

The match was played at Ascot Stadium in Gweru.