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Ngezi Platinum vs TelOne — Premier Soccer League 2026

Ngezi Platinum
Ngezi Platinum
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
TelOne
TelOne
N. Muzenda 88'
K. Chigwida 85'
P. Mtasa 75'
7/26/2025Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 23Baobab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Ngezi Platinum48%
×Draw29%
TelOne23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ngezi Platinum
1.29
TelOne
0.81

Ngezi Platinum creates 59% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 61 away

creates per match

Ngezi Platinum
1.60
TelOne
0.98

allows per match

Ngezi Platinum
0.65
TelOne
0.97

finishing

Ngezi Platinum+0.00on par
TelOne+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ngezi Platinum ↓

TelOne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ngezi Platinum or draw
77%
Ngezi Platinum or TelOne
71%
Draw or TelOne
52%

Winning margin

Ngezi Platinum wins by 2+
22%
TelOne wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ngezi Platinum 1+ goals
72%
Ngezi Platinum 2+ goals
37%
Ngezi Platinum 3+ goals
14%
TelOne 1+ goals
56%
TelOne 2+ goals
19%
TelOne 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ngezi Platinum (draw refunded)
67%
TelOne (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ngezi Platinum at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.65 · 103 matches

TelOne away — creates 0.98, concedes 0.97 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ngezi Platinum attack 1.60 + TelOne defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.29

TelOne attack 0.98 + Ngezi Platinum defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ngezi Platinum scores more
48%
level
29%
TelOne scores more
23%

Ngezi Platinum at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ngezi Platinum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

75'
P. Mtasa
85'
K. Chigwida
88'
N. Muzenda

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ngezi Platinum vs TelOne

Ngezi Platinum beat TelOne 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on July 26, 2025.

Goals: P. Mtasa (75'), K. Chigwida (85'), N. Muzenda (88').

The match was played at Baobab Stadium in Ngezi.