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Telfs vs Kitzbühel — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Telfs
Telfs
FT
1 – 2
Kitzbühel
Kitzbühel
9/1/2023Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 7Sportplatz Telfs Emat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Telfs38%
×Draw23%
Kitzbühel39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Telfs
1.61
Kitzbühel
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 16 away

creates per match

Telfs
2.17
Kitzbühel
1.44

allows per match

Telfs
1.83
Kitzbühel
1.06

finishing

Telfs+0.00on par
Kitzbühel+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Telfs ↓

Kitzbühel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Telfs or draw
61%
Telfs or Kitzbühel
77%
Draw or Kitzbühel
62%

Winning margin

Telfs wins by 2+
19%
Kitzbühel wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Telfs 1+ goals
80%
Telfs 2+ goals
48%
Telfs 3+ goals
22%
Kitzbühel 1+ goals
81%
Kitzbühel 2+ goals
49%
Kitzbühel 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Telfs (draw refunded)
49%
Kitzbühel (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Telfs at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.83 · 42 matches

Kitzbühel away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Telfs attack 2.17 + Kitzbühel defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.61

Kitzbühel attack 1.44 + Telfs defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Telfs scores more
38%
level
23%
Kitzbühel scores more
39%

Kitzbühel at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kitzbühel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Telfs vs Kitzbühel

Kitzbühel beat Telfs 2-1 in Landesliga - Tirol on September 1, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Telfs Emat in Telfs.