Kitzbühel 2–1 Telfs: Result & Stats

Kitzbühel

FT

2 – 1

Telfs

11/11/2023

Landesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 18Sportplatz Langau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kitzbühel56%

×Draw21%

Telfs23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KitzbühelExpected goals in this matchTelfs

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.31

Kitzbühel

2.15

Telfs

1.31

Kitzbühel creates 64% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 42 away

2.06

creates per match

1.55

1.06

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

Kitzbühel

2.06

Telfs

1.55

allows per match

Kitzbühel

1.06

Telfs

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kitzbühel+0.00on par

Telfs+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kitzbühel ↓

Telfs →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Kitzbühel or draw

77%

Kitzbühel or Telfs

79%

Draw or Telfs

44%

Winning margin

Kitzbühel wins by 2+

34%

Telfs wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Kitzbühel 1+ goals

88%

Kitzbühel 2+ goals

63%

Kitzbühel 3+ goals

36%

Telfs 1+ goals

73%

Telfs 2+ goals

38%

Telfs 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Kitzbühel (draw refunded)

71%

Telfs (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kitzbühel at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Telfs away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.24 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kitzbühel attack 2.06 + Telfs defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.15

Telfs attack 1.55 + Kitzbühel defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kitzbühel scores more

56%

level

21%

Telfs scores more

23%

Kitzbühel at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Kitzbühel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff