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Telfs vs Ebbs — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Telfs
Telfs
FT
2 – 1
Ebbs
Ebbs
3/24/2024Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 19Sportplatz Telfs Emat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Telfs44%
×Draw22%
Ebbs34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Telfs
1.98
Ebbs
1.73

Telfs creates 14% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 84 away

creates per match

Telfs
2.17
Ebbs
1.62

allows per match

Telfs
1.83
Ebbs
1.80

finishing

Telfs+0.00on par
Ebbs+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Telfs ↓

Ebbs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Telfs or draw
66%
Telfs or Ebbs
78%
Draw or Ebbs
56%

Winning margin

Telfs wins by 2+
25%
Ebbs wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Telfs 1+ goals
86%
Telfs 2+ goals
59%
Telfs 3+ goals
31%
Ebbs 1+ goals
82%
Ebbs 2+ goals
52%
Ebbs 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Telfs (draw refunded)
56%
Ebbs (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Telfs at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.83 · 42 matches

Ebbs away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.80 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Telfs attack 2.17 + Ebbs defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.98

Ebbs attack 1.62 + Telfs defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Telfs scores more
44%
level
22%
Ebbs scores more
34%

Telfs at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Telfs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Telfs 2 – 1 Ebbs

Telfs beat Ebbs 2-1 in Landesliga - Tirol on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Telfs Emat in Telfs.