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Ebbs vs Telfs — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Ebbs
Ebbs
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Telfs
Telfs
9/14/2025Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 5Glonner Arena Ebbs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Ebbs53%
×Draw21%
Telfs26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ebbs
2.19
Telfs
1.48

Ebbs creates 48% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 42 away

creates per match

Ebbs
2.14
Telfs
1.55

allows per match

Ebbs
1.40
Telfs
2.24

finishing

Ebbs+0.00on par
Telfs+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebbs ↓

Telfs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Ebbs or draw
74%
Ebbs or Telfs
79%
Draw or Telfs
47%

Winning margin

Ebbs wins by 2+
32%
Telfs wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ebbs 1+ goals
89%
Ebbs 2+ goals
64%
Ebbs 3+ goals
37%
Telfs 1+ goals
77%
Telfs 2+ goals
43%
Telfs 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Ebbs (draw refunded)
67%
Telfs (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebbs at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.40 · 87 matches

Telfs away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.24 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebbs attack 2.14 + Telfs defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.19

Telfs attack 1.55 + Ebbs defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ebbs scores more
53%
level
21%
Telfs scores more
26%

Ebbs at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ebbs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ebbs 3 – 1 Telfs

Ebbs beat Telfs 3-1 in Landesliga - Tirol on September 14, 2025.

The match was played at Glonner Arena Ebbs in Ebbs.