Tekstilshchik 2–1 Rodina Moskva II: Result & Stats

Tekstilshchik

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Rodina Moskva II

4/19/2026

Second League A - Fall Season Gold · Spring Season Gold - 9Stadion Tekstilshchik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Tekstilshchik40%

×Draw28%

Rodina Moskva II32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TekstilshchikExpected goals in this matchRodina Moskva II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.08

Tekstilshchik

1.26

Rodina Moskva II

1.08

Tekstilshchik creates 17% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 9 away

1.41

creates per match

1.11

1.04

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Tekstilshchik

1.41

Rodina Moskva II

1.11

allows per match

Tekstilshchik

1.04

Rodina Moskva II

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tekstilshchik+0.00on par

Rodina Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilshchik ↓

Rodina Moskva II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Tekstilshchik or draw

68%

Tekstilshchik or Rodina Moskva II

72%

Draw or Rodina Moskva II

60%

Winning margin

Tekstilshchik wins by 2+

18%

Rodina Moskva II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Tekstilshchik 1+ goals

72%

Tekstilshchik 2+ goals

36%

Tekstilshchik 3+ goals

13%

Rodina Moskva II 1+ goals

66%

Rodina Moskva II 2+ goals

29%

Rodina Moskva II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)

56%

Rodina Moskva II (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilshchik at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

Rodina Moskva II away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilshchik attack 1.41 + Rodina Moskva II defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.26

Rodina Moskva II attack 1.11 + Tekstilshchik defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tekstilshchik scores more

40%

level

28%

Rodina Moskva II scores more

32%

Tekstilshchik at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tekstilshchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff