Rodina Moskva II 3–1 Tekstilshchik: Result & Stats

Rodina Moskva II

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tekstilshchik

11/4/2023

Second League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 17Stadion Rodina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Rodina Moskva II58%

×Draw25%

Tekstilshchik17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rodina Moskva IIExpected goals in this matchTekstilshchik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.73

Rodina Moskva II

1.58

Tekstilshchik

0.73

Rodina Moskva II creates 116% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 9 away

1.72

creates per match

0.78

0.68

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Rodina Moskva II

1.72

Tekstilshchik

0.78

allows per match

Rodina Moskva II

0.68

Tekstilshchik

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rodina Moskva II+0.00on par

Tekstilshchik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodina Moskva II ↓

Tekstilshchik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Rodina Moskva II or draw

83%

Rodina Moskva II or Tekstilshchik

75%

Draw or Tekstilshchik

42%

Winning margin

Rodina Moskva II wins by 2+

31%

Tekstilshchik wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Rodina Moskva II 1+ goals

79%

Rodina Moskva II 2+ goals

47%

Rodina Moskva II 3+ goals

21%

Tekstilshchik 1+ goals

52%

Tekstilshchik 2+ goals

17%

Tekstilshchik 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Rodina Moskva II (draw refunded)

77%

Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodina Moskva II at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.68 · 25 matches

Tekstilshchik away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodina Moskva II attack 1.72 + Tekstilshchik defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.58

Tekstilshchik attack 0.78 + Rodina Moskva II defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Rodina Moskva II scores more

58%

level

25%

Tekstilshchik scores more

17%

Rodina Moskva II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Rodina Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff