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Tekstilshchik vs Metallurg Lipetsk — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Tekstilshchik
Tekstilshchik
FT
6 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Metallurg Lipetsk
Metallurg Lipetsk
10/7/2023Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 13Stadion Tekstilshchik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Tekstilshchik58%
×Draw23%
Metallurg Lipetsk18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tekstilshchik
1.75
Metallurg Lipetsk
0.86

Tekstilshchik creates 103% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

creates per match

Tekstilshchik
2.00
Metallurg Lipetsk
1.17

allows per match

Tekstilshchik
0.56
Metallurg Lipetsk
1.50

finishing

Tekstilshchik+0.00on par
Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilshchik ↓

Metallurg Lipetsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tekstilshchik or draw
82%
Tekstilshchik or Metallurg Lipetsk
77%
Draw or Metallurg Lipetsk
42%

Winning margin

Tekstilshchik wins by 2+
33%
Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tekstilshchik 1+ goals
83%
Tekstilshchik 2+ goals
52%
Tekstilshchik 3+ goals
25%
Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals
58%
Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals
21%
Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)
76%
Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilshchik at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Metallurg Lipetsk away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilshchik attack 2.00 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 1.17 + Tekstilshchik defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Tekstilshchik scores more
58%
level
23%
Metallurg Lipetsk scores more
18%

Tekstilshchik at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Tekstilshchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tekstilshchik vs Metallurg Lipetsk

Tekstilshchik beat Metallurg Lipetsk 6-1 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Tekstilshchik in Ivanovo.