Tekstilshchik 1–2 Metallurg Lipetsk: Result & Stats

Tekstilshchik

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Metallurg Lipetsk

4/6/2022

First League · Round 31Stadion Tekstilshchik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tekstilshchik44%

×Draw25%

Metallurg Lipetsk31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TekstilshchikExpected goals in this matchMetallurg Lipetsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.28

Tekstilshchik

1.55

Metallurg Lipetsk

1.28

Tekstilshchik creates 21% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 19 away

0.94

creates per match

0.95

1.61

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Tekstilshchik

0.94

Metallurg Lipetsk

0.95

allows per match

Tekstilshchik

1.61

Metallurg Lipetsk

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tekstilshchik+0.00on par

Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilshchik ↓

Metallurg Lipetsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Tekstilshchik or draw

69%

Tekstilshchik or Metallurg Lipetsk

75%

Draw or Metallurg Lipetsk

56%

Winning margin

Tekstilshchik wins by 2+

22%

Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tekstilshchik 1+ goals

79%

Tekstilshchik 2+ goals

46%

Tekstilshchik 3+ goals

20%

Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals

72%

Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals

37%

Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)

58%

Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilshchik at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.61 · 54 matches

Metallurg Lipetsk away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilshchik attack 0.94 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.55

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 0.95 + Tekstilshchik defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tekstilshchik scores more

44%

level

25%

Metallurg Lipetsk scores more

31%

Tekstilshchik at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tekstilshchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff