Tekstilshchik 1–0 Dinamo Kirov: Result & Stats

Tekstilshchik

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dinamo Kirov

A. Skvortsov 51'

4/5/2025

League #1064 · Spring Season Silver - 6Stadion Tekstilshchik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tekstilshchik53%

×Draw35%

Dinamo Kirov12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TekstilshchikExpected goals in this matchDinamo Kirov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

0.35

Tekstilshchik

1.05

Dinamo Kirov

0.35

Tekstilshchik creates 200% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.60

creates per match

0.50

0.20

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Tekstilshchik

1.60

Dinamo Kirov

0.50

allows per match

Tekstilshchik

0.20

Dinamo Kirov

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tekstilshchik+0.00on par

Dinamo Kirov+0.00on par

Total goals

Under83
Over17

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No81
Yes19

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilshchik ↓

Dinamo Kirov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–025%

0–19%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–026%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–15%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–12%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (26%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

75%25%1.5

41%59%2.5

17%83%3.5

5%95%4.5

1%99%

Double chance

Tekstilshchik or draw

88%

Tekstilshchik or Dinamo Kirov

65%

Draw or Dinamo Kirov

47%

Winning margin

Tekstilshchik wins by 2+

22%

Dinamo Kirov wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Tekstilshchik 1+ goals

65%

Tekstilshchik 2+ goals

28%

Tekstilshchik 3+ goals

9%

Dinamo Kirov 1+ goals

30%

Dinamo Kirov 2+ goals

5%

Dinamo Kirov 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)

81%

Dinamo Kirov (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

10%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilshchik at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

Dinamo Kirov away — creates 0.50, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilshchik attack 1.60 + Dinamo Kirov defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.05

Dinamo Kirov attack 0.50 + Tekstilshchik defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tekstilshchik scores more

53%

level

35%

Dinamo Kirov scores more

12%

Tekstilshchik at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tekstilshchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

23'

35'

35'

48'

51'

62'

M. Ivakhnov← A. Skvortsov

73'

D. Kvekveskiri← I. Selemenev

73'

O. Kalugin← M. Polyakov

73'

A. Goryushkin← A. Shmarov

83'

E. Knyazev← D. Nagovitsin

86'

A. Pasko← M. Bogdaev

90+1'

F. Fenin← N. Kozlovskiy

Tekstilshchik

Dinamo

96

5

23

47

99

▼

Shmarov

4

▼

22

95

17

93

▼

11

51

4

76

12

13

9

33

▼

Polyakov

17

▼

Kozlovski

19

Noskov

92

⚽

▼

Skvortsov

7

▼

Selemenev

Manager: D. Kirichenko

62'▲M. Ivakhnov←▼A. Skvortsov

73'▲D. Kvekveskiri←▼I. Selemenev

73'▲O. Kalugin←▼M. Polyakov

90+1'▲F. Fenin←▼N. Kozlovskiy

Tekstilshchik substitutes

56Ivakhnov11Kvekveskiri23Kalugin98Fenin3Detenyshev10Volodkin30Ramazanov38Zakharov65Yartsev68Grigoryev71Matsigura91Kalin

Manager: V. Bulatov

73'▲A. Goryushkin←▼A. Shmarov

83'▲E. Knyazev←▼D. Nagovitsin

86'▲A. Pasko←▼M. Bogdaev

Dinamo Kirov substitutes

7Goryushkin71Knyazev3Pasko10Usov52Krylov97Eremeev

Match Recap: Tekstilshchik vs Dinamo Kirov

Tekstilshchik beat Dinamo Kirov 1-0 in League #1064 on April 5, 2025.

Goals: A. Skvortsov (51').

The match was played at Stadion Tekstilshchik in Ivanovo.

Tekstilshchik vs Dinamo Kirov — League #1064 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Tekstilshchik vs Dinamo Kirov