Dinamo Kirov 0–3 Tekstilshchik: Result & Stats

Dinamo Kirov

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Tekstilshchik

D. Anosov 68'

T. Melekestsev 54'

T. Danilov 36' (OG)

11/1/2025

Second League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 16VyatSShOR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dinamo Kirov34%

×Draw28%

Tekstilshchik38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo KirovExpected goals in this matchTekstilshchik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.19

Dinamo Kirov

1.11

Tekstilshchik

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 27 away

1.00

creates per match

1.26

1.11

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Dinamo Kirov

1.00

Tekstilshchik

1.26

allows per match

Dinamo Kirov

1.11

Tekstilshchik

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Kirov+0.00on par

Tekstilshchik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Kirov ↓

Tekstilshchik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Dinamo Kirov or draw

62%

Dinamo Kirov or Tekstilshchik

72%

Draw or Tekstilshchik

66%

Winning margin

Dinamo Kirov wins by 2+

14%

Tekstilshchik wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Dinamo Kirov 1+ goals

67%

Dinamo Kirov 2+ goals

30%

Dinamo Kirov 3+ goals

10%

Tekstilshchik 1+ goals

70%

Tekstilshchik 2+ goals

33%

Tekstilshchik 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Kirov (draw refunded)

47%

Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Kirov at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Tekstilshchik away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Kirov attack 1.00 + Tekstilshchik defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Tekstilshchik attack 1.26 + Dinamo Kirov defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dinamo Kirov scores more

34%

level

28%

Tekstilshchik scores more

38%

Tekstilshchik at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tekstilshchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

T. Danilov

26'

M. Noskov

36'

T. DanilovOwn goal

49'

54'

57'

57'

68'

69'

V. Tyurin← M. Bammatgereev

70'

V. Teplyakov← A. Malykh

70'

E. Cherkes← A. Goryushkin

79'

F. Fenin← V. Azarov

79'

E. Tatarinov← T. Melekestsev

82'

N. Bochko

85'

S. Sharov← A. Ukomskiy

85'

D. Nagovitsin← M. Martinkevich

88'

A. Yartsev← N. Chistyakov

88'

D. Kvekveskiri← D. Anosov

90+1'

D. Zakharov← D. Usov

Dinamo

Tekstilshchik

51

Ryabinkin

21

Khityaev

5

Evdokimov

23

▼

26

19

3

7

▼

Bammatger

9

▼

Azarov

69

⚽

▼

Anosov

11

⚽

▼

Melekests

96

Mironov

4

🥅

Danilov

47

Solodaren

12

▼

Malykh

23

Bochko

7

▼

Goryushki

28

Kamaev

91

Filippov

6

▼

Martinkev

11

▼

Ukomskiy

10

▼

Usov

70'▲V. Teplyakov←▼A. Malykh

70'▲E. Cherkes←▼A. Goryushkin

85'▲S. Sharov←▼A. Ukomskiy

85'▲D. Nagovitsin←▼M. Martinkevich

90+1'▲D. Zakharov←▼D. Usov

Dinamo Kirov substitutes

97Eremeev3Pasko18Smoroda24Sitnikov5Omarov22Sharov72Teplyakov9Zakharov8Cherkes93Nagovitsin

69'▲V. Tyurin←▼M. Bammatgereev

79'▲F. Fenin←▼V. Azarov

79'▲E. Tatarinov←▼T. Melekestsev

88'▲A. Yartsev←▼N. Chistyakov

88'▲D. Kvekveskiri←▼D. Anosov

Tekstilshchik substitutes

85Davydov65Yartsev76Steshin10Kvekveskiri80Fenin88Tyurin99Tatarinov