Tekstilshchik 0–1 Chertanovo Moscow: Result & Stats

Tekstilshchik

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Chertanovo Moscow

10/14/2023

Second League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 14Stadion Tekstilshchik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Tekstilshchik64%

×Draw23%

Chertanovo Moscow13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TekstilshchikExpected goals in this matchChertanovo Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

0.61

Tekstilshchik

1.72

Chertanovo Moscow

0.61

Tekstilshchik creates 182% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

2.00

creates per match

0.67

0.56

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Tekstilshchik

2.00

Chertanovo Moscow

0.67

allows per match

Tekstilshchik

0.56

Chertanovo Moscow

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tekstilshchik+0.00on par

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilshchik ↓

Chertanovo Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Tekstilshchik or draw

87%

Tekstilshchik or Chertanovo Moscow

77%

Draw or Chertanovo Moscow

36%

Winning margin

Tekstilshchik wins by 2+

37%

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Tekstilshchik 1+ goals

82%

Tekstilshchik 2+ goals

51%

Tekstilshchik 3+ goals

25%

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals

46%

Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals

13%

Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)

83%

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilshchik at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Chertanovo Moscow away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilshchik attack 2.00 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.72

Chertanovo Moscow attack 0.67 + Tekstilshchik defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Tekstilshchik scores more

64%

level

23%

Chertanovo Moscow scores more

13%

Tekstilshchik at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Tekstilshchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff