Chertanovo Moscow 1–0 Tekstilshchik: Result & Stats

Chertanovo Moscow

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tekstilshchik

M. Saveljev 26'

11/9/2022

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 21Arena Chertanovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Chertanovo Moscow39%

×Draw26%

Tekstilshchik34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chertanovo MoscowExpected goals in this matchTekstilshchik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.24

Chertanovo Moscow

1.34

Tekstilshchik

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 16 away

1.55

creates per match

1.25

1.23

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Chertanovo Moscow

1.55

Tekstilshchik

1.25

allows per match

Chertanovo Moscow

1.23

Tekstilshchik

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Tekstilshchik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chertanovo Moscow ↓

Tekstilshchik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Chertanovo Moscow or draw

66%

Chertanovo Moscow or Tekstilshchik

74%

Draw or Tekstilshchik

61%

Winning margin

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+

18%

Tekstilshchik wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals

74%

Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals

39%

Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals

15%

Tekstilshchik 1+ goals

71%

Tekstilshchik 2+ goals

35%

Tekstilshchik 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)

53%

Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chertanovo Moscow at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.23 · 65 matches

Tekstilshchik away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.55 + Tekstilshchik defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.34

Tekstilshchik attack 1.25 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Chertanovo Moscow scores more

39%

level

26%

Tekstilshchik scores more

34%

Chertanovo Moscow at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Chertanovo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

M. Saveljev

33'

N. Suleymanov

55'

M. Sentyurin

64'

K. Korolkov← O. Kalugin

67'

P. Popov← M. Saveljev

67'

A. Nadolskiy← A. Selyukov

67'

M. Lyamzin← N. Suleymanov

71'

D. Khusainov← A. Evinov

72'

D. Sedov

78'

K. Korolkov

78'

I. Gribakin← K. Furman

80'

R. Vazitdinov

86'

M. Lyamzin

88'

M. Yakimenko← A. Konev

90'

I. Selemenev← M. Sentyurin

Chertanovo

Tekstilshchik

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Saveljev

▼

Konev

Manager: S. Chikishev

67'▲P. Popov←▼M. Saveljev

67'▲A. Nadolskiy←▼A. Selyukov

67'▲M. Lyamzin←▼N. Suleymanov

78'▲I. Gribakin←▼K. Furman

88'▲M. Yakimenko←▼A. Konev

Chertanovo Moscow substitutes

PopovNadolskiyLyamzinGribakinYakimenko

Manager: I. Kolyvanov

64'▲K. Korolkov←▼O. Kalugin

71'▲D. Khusainov←▼A. Evinov

90'▲I. Selemenev←▼M. Sentyurin

Tekstilshchik substitutes

KorolkovKhusainovSelemenev