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Tekstilshchik vs Chertanovo Moscow — First League 2026

Tekstilshchik
Tekstilshchik
CANC
22:00
Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
5/9/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 37

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Tekstilshchik34%
×Draw26%
Chertanovo Moscow40%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tekstilshchik
1.26
Chertanovo Moscow
1.41

Chertanovo Moscow creates 12% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 51 away

creates per match

Tekstilshchik
0.92
Chertanovo Moscow
1.22

allows per match

Tekstilshchik
1.60
Chertanovo Moscow
1.59

finishing

Tekstilshchik+0.00on par
Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilshchik ↓

Chertanovo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tekstilshchik or draw
60%
Tekstilshchik or Chertanovo Moscow
74%
Draw or Chertanovo Moscow
66%

Winning margin

Tekstilshchik wins by 2+
14%
Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Tekstilshchik 1+ goals
72%
Tekstilshchik 2+ goals
36%
Tekstilshchik 3+ goals
13%
Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
76%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
41%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)
45%
Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilshchik at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.60 · 53 matches

Chertanovo Moscow away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.59 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilshchik attack 0.92 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.26

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.22 + Tekstilshchik defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tekstilshchik scores more
34%
level
26%
Chertanovo Moscow scores more
40%

Chertanovo Moscow at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chertanovo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tekstilshchik face Chertanovo Moscow (First League)

First League returns with Tekstilshchik hosting Chertanovo Moscow. Match starts May 9, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.